In the past, solar energy was declared the winner, but it failed. It's easy to be skeptical these days, since solar energy accounts for less than one percent of the world's energy supply. But it's also expanding faster than any other energy source, with an average annual growth rate of 50% over the past six years. Annual installations of solar panels have grown from less than 0.3 gigawatts in 2000 to 45 gigawatts in 2014, enough to power more than 7.4 million American homes. This time is different: solar energy is ready to compete on its own terms.
The push for solar energy is the result of innovations in regulation, industry, technology and financing. In many markets, it no longer needs government subsidies to compete on price with conventional energy sources such as coal, natural gas, and nuclear power. The International Energy Agency, which has historically taken a conservative approach in assessing the prospects for solar development, has predicted that by 2050, at best, solar energy could become the dominant energy source, generating up to 27% of electricity worldwide.
If this happens, the consequences will be profound. Electricity will reach places that do not know what light or heat is required. The price of electricity may drop, and utilities will have to figure out how to adapt. But the environmental benefits will be significant in terms of reductions in particulates, sulfur and greenhouse gases.
CITY AUTHORITY
There are four factors behind the growth of solar energy. The first is regulatory support. Governments around the world have taken a number of measures to support solar energy, including requirements for utilities to produce a certain amount of electricity from solar energy, feed-in tariffs (a guaranteed price per kilowatt of solar energy), and panel subsidies. Sun. the producers and the families who buy them. Politicians champion solar power for a number of reasons, including a desire to reduce emissions, diversify the nation's energy supply and create jobs. Perhaps most importantly, they recognized the long-term potential of solar energy and wanted to create a market for it.
Germany, the country with the most aggressive policy, has added 35 gigawatts of solar power in the past decade, supplying most of the world's demand. In the United States, requiring utilities to use renewable sources, as well as a federal tax credit that allows taxpayers to deduct 30% of the cost of installing solar energy systems, has contributed to energy availability. . Between 2000 and 2013, the country's solar panel capacity grew from 18 megawatts to more than 12,000 megawatts, enough to power nearly two million homes.
Surprisingly, regulatory support has not always been profitable, but it has been effective in creating enough demand for a large solar panel industry to form and learn to compete. Although the industry has experienced painful ups and downs, especially in the middle of the last decade when dozens of solar panel companies went bankrupt, installations have continued to grow and the industry has become more competitive. For example, almost all solar installations in California received state subsidies in 2007. By the end of 2013, less than 40 percent had received them. Of course, federal grants are still available.
The second factor is industrialization, especially in China. Since 2005, manufacturers have entered the solar panel market to meet growing global demand and now account for nearly two-thirds of solar panel production. Competition from China has squeezed profit margins and forced many suppliers out of business, but it has also led to improvements in manufacturing processes that have significantly reduced costs and brought new economies of scale.
The last decade has seen technological innovations in manufacturing, lower interest rates, tighter supply chains and better economies of scale; During this period, the price of polysilicon, the raw material for the production of solar panels, decreased by 90 percent. As a result, the cost of solar panels has fallen by 80 percent since 2005. Prices continue to decline by 5 to 12 percent in the first half of 2014, with further declines possible. Soft costs (the cost of everything but the cost of equipment, such as permits, installation, and maintenance) account for nearly two-thirds of the total cost of residential solar systems in the United States. Subsidized costs are a third of the price in Germany, where, among other things, national standards have simplified installation and improved the permitting process.
A third factor driving the increase in solar energy use is technological innovation. Slowly but steadily, solar panels have become more efficient. Efficiency figures have reached about 20 percent, meaning the panel can produce two electricity for every ten watts of sunlight, but that figure could rise as the industry tests various new technologies and materials. If so, the savings can be significant. every percent improvement in efficiency can result in a 5% reduction in total system costs. It is also for greater efficiency after the power is produced, where power is lost when converting DC (produced by the panels) to AC (required for grid distribution).
The fourth and last factor is related to financing. Building a solar system has a large upfront cost. It costs $15,000 to $20,000 to install tile on a typical home, and while the investment can pay off over time, many families and businesses are wary of spending that money right away. New financing models solve this problem. With third-party systems, homeowners contract with companies that install and maintain solar panels. In return, consumers pay a fixed monthly fee, or a fixed price per unit of energy, with no out-of-pocket costs, but receive a lower electricity rent. In 2012 and 2013, more than two-thirds of California's power plants used this financing approach, which is one reason the state leads the nation in solar energy.
FOR MORE MONEY
Given these trends, it's not too much of a stretch to assume that solar costs will continue to decline by 8-12% per year in many markets. First Solar, an Arizona-based manufacturer, expects solar module manufacturing costs to drop from 63 cents per watt in 2014 to about 40 cents per watt in 2017. Market changes. I could never be sure of a steady decrease year after year.
The development of electrical energy storage technologies, especially batteries, will also support the development of solar energy. Without storage, solar energy can only be used when the sun is bright; in the case of storage, it can be used when the cost of electricity is higher. The cost of battery storage has fallen by about 70 percent in the past five years, and companies like SolarCity are already pairing solar panels with batteries. The price could drop by as much as 70 percent over the next decade as technology and manufacturing methods improve, thanks in part to battery research by consumer electronics companies like Panasonic and electric car makers like Tesla.
It is not certain that much progress will be made in terms of efficiency and maintenance. But even without such advances, solar energy is entering mainstream markets. In the United States, rooftop solar panels are already competitive in places with lots of sun and high energy prices, such as Hawaii and parts of California. As the cost of solar energy continues to fall over the next decade, it could become cost-effective for consumers in dozens of US states by 2020, as well as for certain consumer segments such as high energy efficiency and well-located rooftops. . . By 2030, more than 25 countries, even without government support. In most of Australia, as well as in central and southern Europe, solar energy is close to its economic threshold. And China, where many cities are so polluted they turn gray with snowfall, is working hard to install 70 gigawatts of solar power by 2017.
In the Middle East, solar power competes with diesel power generation, which costs 12 cents per kilowatt hour. In 2014, the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority agreed to buy solar power at half price. Solar currently has less than 100 megawatts of solar capacity in Saudi Arabia, largely because oil production is so cheap that suppliers pay the cost of production per barrel (around $5). As oil-producing nations switch from burning oil domestically to selling it on international markets at higher prices, the case for solar power will only get stronger. With this logic, the government of Saudi Arabia presented plans to produce two gigawatts of solar energy by 2015, and 41 gigawatts of solar energy by 2032.
Japan isn't exactly sunny, but it's opting for solar power as it looks for alternatives to the nuclear power plants it shut down after the 2011 Fukushima disaster. It has generous tariffs for solar and other types of energy supply. resources, alternatives. Japan installed more than eight gigawatts of solar power in 2014 and has set an overall goal of 20 percent renewable energy by 2030, double what it had before the disaster. There is also room for more solar power in Asian countries such as China and South Korea, which are heavily dependent on LNG, the price of which is linked to oil and can therefore fluctuate up and down.
In countries that are not yet electrified, such as much of South Asia and Africa, solar energy is generally cheaper and more readily available than traditional energy sources. In India, where some 100,000 villages lack access to electricity, solar power is already cheaper (and often more reliable) than viable alternatives like coal or oil. Solar power also eliminates the need for power lines to reach the city. India's new prime minister, Narendra Modi, appears to be seeing the benefits, announcing in January an ambitious goal of building 100 gigawatts of solar power by 2022, which could make India the largest producer of solar power. For off-grid villages, a combination of solar panels, efficient lighting, mobile phone sockets and electric water pumps could improve the quality of life for hundreds of millions of people.
Confusion to come
As solar tariffs begin to match conventional energy tariffs in more and more markets, installed solar capacity could increase annually from about 45 gigawatts today to more than 200 gigawatts by 2025. This will fundamentally change the electricity of the energy sector.
The spread of solar panels, wind turbines and other renewable energy sources in Europe is changing the composition of the electricity sector. The market share of renewable energy has grown from 6% of the total in 2006 to 12% at the end of 2013, and in some countries has even increased. This significant new supply, along with lower (or reduced) demand growth due to efficiency gains and slower economic growth, has helped lower the wholesale price of energy. However, the price paid by consumers is still high due to the cost of infrastructure and various taxes. European consumers pay an average of about 26 cents per kilowatt hour, compared to 12 cents in the US.
High prices in Europe have made competition for renewables easier, as well as utility demands to prioritize renewables on the grid. However, European companies are somewhat affected by this increase in the use of renewable energy. From a peak of $1.3 trillion in 2008 to the end of 2013, their market value has halved. In 2014, Germany's largest utility, E.ON, announced a radical move to focus on renewable energy, spinning off its nuclear and fossil power plants into a separate company. Japan's utilities are also unprepared for the increase in solar power and are threatening to cut off access to the grid.
In some regions of the United States, businesses are beginning to face similar challenges. Traditionally, U.S. utilities have remained profitable enough to meet all new electricity demand, but solar power threatens that steady income. In the first half of 2014, solar accounted for a quarter of new capacity, and a home with solar panels doesn't buy that much power from the grid. As a result, reduced demand reduces the amount of new capital that utilities can invest, meaning that even if solar continues to generate a relatively small share of U.S. electricity, it could have a big impact on the industry's future. . In a 2014 survey by consulting firm Accenture, 61% of business leaders said they expect significant revenue losses due to the proliferation of distributed energy sources, including solar.
Solar energy could shake up other industries as well. For example, the proliferation of rooftop solar panels in the residential sector could change construction and design practices. During production, plants can be moved to areas with suitable conditions to receive free solar energy. In agriculture, hot spots where fresh water is scarce could use solar energy to desalinate and pump water, allowing farmers to work on previously barren land. History shows that when a product becomes cheaper, it is used in new and unexpected ways.
RISKS AND STABILITY
Amidst all the optimism, it's worth considering what's holding solar power back. One option is for governments to withdraw or loosen support policies. This could backfire, as it did when Spain cut subsidies after the financial crisis and Germany cut interest rates. Solar adoption has slowed in both markets, but the industry as a whole continues to grow. Indeed, the solar industry has proven resilient, coming back lighter and stronger from a painful collapse a decade ago.
The biggest risk in many markets is not the disappearance of government support, but the worsening of long-term regulatory problems. In the United States, for example, utilities fear that solar customers will have near-free rides because they rely on the grid on cloudy days and no longer cover the grid's fixed costs when the sun goes down. And in some states, when consumers sell electricity back to the grid, they are paid the retail rate rather than the lower wholesale rate, known as "net metering."
In response, some utilities want to charge households for rooftop panels to access the grid, imposing so-called "demand" or "capacity" charges. This will fundamentally change the economics of solar power, given how high the stakes are. Some utilities in the United States want to recover all fixed distribution costs from solar customers as well as end net metering. Regulators may not go that far, however. For example, in 2013, Arizona allowed its largest utility to set a fixed rate on homes using solar power, but that rate was much lower than desired and the state kept the grid.
How and when the fixed cost recovery debate is resolved, country by country, will be one of the most important factors in determining how fast solar power grows and how concentrated it is (in the form of large, remote solar plants). ) և որքանով այն ապակենտրոնացված կլինի (շերտերով): Երկու կողմերն էլ կարող են օրինակ վերցնել հեռահաղորդակցության ոլորտից։ Երբ 1980-ականներին ԱՄՆ-ում լուծարվեց այս հատվածի մենաշնորհը, շուկայի նոր մասնակիցներին հասանելիություն տրվեց գոյություն ունեցող ենթակառուցվածքին, բայց ստիպված եղան վճարել ողջամիտ գներ, որոնք փոխհատուցում էին գոյություն ունեցող ծառայություններ մատուցողներին իրենց ծառայությունների համար՝ տեղ թողնելով նոր մրցակցության համար: Եվ լավ է հիշել, որ հանրային ծառայության շահութաբեր դաշտը ոչ մեկին ձեռնտու չէ. վստահելի ցանց Ինչպես Financial Times- ը մեջբերել է SolarCity-ի գործադիր տնօրեն Լինդոն Ռիվին ասել է. «Կարևոր է ունենալ ցանց»:
Համեմատած կարգավորող վեճերի հետ՝ մյուս խնդիրները կարծես թե հեշտությամբ լուծվում են: Հնարավոր ռիսկերից մեկն այն է, որ ավելի բարձր տոկոսադրույքներն անխուսափելի են (տոկոսադրույքները կարող են միայն բարձրանալ), ինչը կհանգեցնի արևային էներգիայի ֆինանսավորման ծախսերի ավելացմանը։ Սակայն ինստիտուցիոնալ ներդրողների շրջանում մեծ պահանջարկ կա «եկամտի արժեքի» համար, հրապարակային առևտրով զբաղվող ընկերություններ, որոնք միավորում են դրամական միջոցների հոսքերը վերականգնվող էներգիայի աղբյուրներից: Ети инвестица с чистом листом риска большое почел начасты на финансирование. Այնուամենայնիվ, բարձր տոկոսադրույքները ազդում են նաև էլեկտրաէներգիայի արտադրության այլ կապիտալ ինտենսիվ այլընտրանքների վրա:
Մյուս ռիսկն այն է, որ էներգիայի էժան աղբյուրները, ինչպիսիք են թերթաքարային հանքավայրերից ստացվող բնական գազը, կարող են խաթարել արևային էներգիայի տնտեսությունը: Դա կարող է տեղի ունենալ շուտով: Այնուամենայնիվ, երկարաժամկետ տեսանկյունից բնական գազը արևային էներգիայի ընկերն է, քան թշնամին: Բնական գազը, ընդհանուր առմամբ, ճկուն էներգիայի էժան և հուսալի աղբյուր է, որը կարող է լրացնել արևային մարտկոցներով արտադրվող էլեկտրաէներգիան՝ ապահովելով 24-ժամյա պահուստավորում, ինչը նվազեցնում է արևային էներգիան ցանցին ինտեգրելու ծախսերը: Փաստորեն, արևային էներգիան թափ է հավաքում աշխարհում բնական գազի ամենացածր գներով երկրում՝ Հյուսիսային Ամերիկայում:
Երրորդ հնարավոր ռիսկը միջուկային միաձուլման կամ այլ առաջընթացի վերջնական առաջացումն է: Գուցե, բայց սա ենթադրություն է։ Ավելի լավ է ընտրել ապացուցված տեխնոլոգիան, վաճառքը արագ աճում է, իսկ ծախսերը՝ նվազում:
СОЛНЦЕ ПРИБЛИЖАЕТСЯ
Ածուխ, բնական գազ և միջուկային էներգիա, որոնք այսօր ապահովում են աշխարհի էներգիայի երկու երրորդը կամ ավելին, ոչ մի տեղ չկա: Բայց նույնիսկ շուկա ցածր ջերմաստիճանի ներթափանցմամբ, արևային էներգիան սկսեց փոխել էլեկտրաէներգիայի տնտեսությունը: Ето рассвет солнечной ери.
Եթե սա չափազանց լավատեսական է թվում, ապա հաշվի առեք մեկ այլ տեխնոլոգիա, որը տասնամյակների ընթացքում հետաքրքրասիրությունից վերածվել է կլիշեի՝ ավտոմեքենային: Երբ 1890 թվականին առաջին մեքենան հայտնվեց ամերիկյան ճանապարհներին, թերահավատները ծիծաղեցին, որ «անձի կառքը» ապագա չունի։ 1900 թվականին յուրաքանչյուր 10000 ամերիկացու դիմաց կար ընդամենը մեկ մեքենա: Այնուամենայնիվ, 1908 թվականին ներկայացվեց Model T-ը, ինչը մեքենաներն ավելի մատչելի դարձրեց ավելի մեծ թվով մարդկանց համար: 1920 թվականին յուրաքանչյուր 10000 ամերիկացիին բաժին էր ընկնում գրեթե 900 մեքենա: Համաշխարհային արևային արդյունաբերությունը նույն փուլում է, ինչ ավտոմոբիլային արդյունաբերությունը 1920-ականներին: Իսկ կանոնները կարող են արագ փոխվել։ 1920-ից 1930 թվականներին ավտոմեքենաների սեփականատերերի թիվը հասել է 2170 մեքենայի՝ 10000 ամերիկացիների համար։ Միացյալ Նահանգները դարձավ ավտոմոբիլային երկիր.
Առաջիկա տասը տարում մենք կարող ենք տեսնել արեգակնային էներգիայի նման մի բան, բայց համաշխարհային մասշտաբով։ Զարմանալի չէր լինի, օրինակ, եթե նոր բնակելի տների մեծ մասը, հատկապես Եվրոպայի և ԱՄՆ-ի ամենաարևոտ հատվածներում, կառուցված լինեին արևային էներգիայով, կամ եթե հնդկական այդ 100,000 առանց էլեկտրական գյուղերի մեծ մասը գիշերը լուսավորվեր: արեւային էներգիա Նույնիսկ առանց արդյունավետության և մարտկոցների մեծ թռիչքների, ինչպես նաև անորոշ և երբեմն հակասական պետական քաղաքականության պայմաններում արևային էներգիայի զարգացումն անկասելի էր:
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