In 2009, Philippe Dell, a professor at the University of Luxembourg, spoke at an academic conference and included the image as an afterthought.
The table shows that the new PV material has comparable performance to known materials in the early stages of development, despite some disappointing initial results.
"My performance was terrible, but people loved the show," Dale said this week.
In the years that followed, he and his frequent collaborator Michael Scarpulo, a professor at the University of Utah, expanded the graph and found a pattern that persisted across several solar technologies: the number of scientific papers published.
This discovery was a sign that improving solar technology is not just a matter of time or the intrinsic properties of materials, but rather the efforts of researchers.
But what does efficiency mean in this context? The leading silicon solar panel technologies currently dominating the market have an efficiency of more than 25 percent, which is the fraction that can be converted into electricity by absorbing solar energy.
Dell and Scarpulo recently published their results in the journal Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, and this week I spoke with them in a video interview with Dell in Luxembourg and Scarpulo in Salt Lake City.
The key word, they say, is "effort".
"It takes a lot of effort from a lot of people to make high-efficiency PV work," Scarpulo said. "There is no such thing as a free lunch."
Based on the number of scientific publications on these materials, they found that different solar panel materials have similar efficiencies. So if 100 out of 10,000 articles are written, the increase in efficiency will be equal to the increase in efficiency of their peers at the same point in history.
Materials include the decades-old cadmium-silicon telluride, as well as newer alternatives such as perovskite halides and copper-indium-gallium selenide, or CIGS. (Perovskites are developed for use with silicon, one of many examples of material exchange.)
"I found the scope of the story very interesting," Dale said.
Efficiency growth does not occur in a straight line. The first stages of research are very profitable. Then, in later stages, further changes become more complex. This is a dynamic in the industry, proving that in a well-developed technology, the hardest work yields the least profit.
A warning. The authors acknowledge that using the number of research papers as a measure of effort has some drawbacks. For example, it doesn't take into account corporate funding for research and development, which is a key driver of solar panel innovation.
What you choose to pursue in research is something that can be quantified, but corporate R&D spending is not widespread or comprehensive.
It is also important to mention why you are focusing on improving performance. Since the 1970s, the efficiency of silicon solar panels has doubled with significant reductions, making this technology one of the most efficient sources of electricity.
Researchers are constantly looking for other materials that can do the job of silicon but have other desirable properties, taking into account cost, availability, strength and other factors. But to compete, options must be highly effective and cost-effective.
Dell and Scarpula's work helps us understand what performance improvements can be expected based on what has happened in the past. It also provides context for understanding the performance levels of different materials. Some materials may have a weak impact, but if you don't put too much effort into research, they can still feel more profound.
Does this mean that any material can be used to make a solar cell and the efficiency of the operation will increase significantly? in general. Scientists work with silicon and its alternatives because these materials are well-suited to absorbing solar energy, and the work has a cumulative effect as researchers learn from each other. If the material shows little or no promise, scientists will not care and there will be little work to build.
The authors say they believe some important elements are missing from the commonly cited sources for tracking the performance of solar materials.
Perhaps the most widely cited solar panel efficiency chart is the one maintained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. It tracks performance annually, showing rapid growth in approved and new materials over the past few years.
Scarpula and Dale, the NREL chart does not show much variation in the efforts to develop each technology.
By seeking to understand the role of research efforts, the authors hope to raise awareness of the potential for targeted growth.
I asked how this research could inform their optimism about the clean energy transition.
“What I really internalized is the (potential) accelerated learning when we all work together,” Dale said.
More transition stories worth watching this week:
Korea's Hanwha QCells is investing heavily in the US solar energy supply chain . South Korean solar company Qcells announced Wednesday that it will spend $2.5 billion to increase production capacity at a plant in Georgia. Other factories in the state. Nicola Groom told Reuters the announcement was one of the company's biggest production moves since the anti-inflation law was passed last year. Qcells, part of the Hanwha conglomerate, said the expansion would allow it to hire up to 2,500 workers. "I think it's fair to say that this deal is President Biden's vision," White House climate adviser John Podesta told reporters. “Global big business has chosen America to invest in building our clean energy future and create thousands of high-wage, middle-wage workers. class assignment".
FERC approves Duke Energy Florida and Tampa Electric to join Southeast Power Market The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has approved two Florida companies, Duke Energy Florida and Tampa Electric, to join the Regional Resource Sharing Partnership. Diana DiGangi for Utility Dive reports that the partnership, called the Southeast Energy Exchange Market, now has 21 members. The group has been controversial because it has some characteristics of regional network operators but is not an open market. The result, critics say, is a partnership that favors member utilities and stifles competition in favor of consumers. The debate has implications for the clean energy transition, as one barrier to renewable energy in parts of the Southeast is that utilities can block competitors from entering the market.
Fossil fuel critic to lead Biden's top marine energy agency The Biden administration has named Elizabeth Klein director of the Interior's Office of Ocean Energy Management, an office that oversees oil, gas, minerals and offshore wind energy. As Timothy Pucco writes for The Washington Post, Klein, a senior adviser to Interior Secretary Deb Holland, served as a renewable energy advocate at the Interior Department in both the Clinton and Obama administrations. The White House had considered appointing Klein as assistant secretary of the interior, but Sens. Joe Manchin (R-West Virginia) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) overruled objections over how Holland and Klein would handle it. Fossil fuel industry reports PUCO. Klein replaces Amanda Lefton, who led the office during a period of rapid acceleration in offshore wind activity.
America needs more electricity to phase out fossil fuels . According to the best science, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the United States must reduce the fossil fuels burned in buildings. As Emily Pontecorvo, in partnership with Canary Media and PostScript Media, reports for Grist, converting buildings to all-electric operations requires increasing the number of electricians. "Customers are looking for electricity every day," said Borin Reiss, owner of Boise Electric in Oakland, Calif., which employs 12 electricians. "We are no longer responding to emergency calls due to lack of manpower. All our technicians are in the field, getting the job done. Compounding the problem is the fact that many electricians are approaching retirement age, so education and training programs need to be strengthened to close the gap.
On Clean Energy - ICN's weekly newsletter with news and insights on the energy transition. Send news tips and questions to dan.gearino@insideclimatenews.org.
