JAKARTA, Indonesia - Power outages left homes and businesses in Vietnam without power for hours as prolonged drought and high temperatures hurt the fast-growing economy's ability to sustain itself.
The long-awaited plan, designed to solve the energy crisis and help meet ambitious climate change targets, will provide some relief but may not go far enough to wean the country off fossil fuels, experts say.
The need for progress is clear.
In some major cities, street lights were turned off and businesses were told to reduce energy consumption. Two of Vietnam's three largest hydropower plants have almost completely shut down due to a severe drought.
"It's a big headache for us," said Nguyen Thanh Tam, deputy manager of Hoa Long Printing in Hanoi. "We need electricity to drive."
The national power plan, known as Power Development Plan 8, or PDP8, aims to more than double the maximum 150 gigawatts Vietnam can generate by 2030. Although this is much less than Japan's 290 GW, it is more than the capacity of developed countries. such as France and Italy.
It requires a gradual shift away from highly polluting coal and greater use of domestic gas and imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) accounts for about 25% of total generation capacity. Power sources will calculate their capacity. About 50% by 2030.
"This plan reflects Vietnam's macroeconomic growth ambitions: strong plans to expand the generation capacity and related power sector infrastructure needed to meet the country's growing energy needs," said Chief of Staff Kanika Chawla. The United Nations Organization has announced Sustainable Energy for All. Sustainable Energy Unit.
Although Vietnam's new power plan indicates that no new coal-fired power plants will be built after 2030 as the country transitions to cleaner fuels, total coal-fired power generation capacity will continue to grow until 2030, representing about 20% of total power generation. by doing . . . - down from the current 30.8%.
Under the plan, Vietnam will phase out coal for power generation by 2050 and convert all coal-fired power plants to use biomass and ammonia.
Experts are concerned about continued reliance on fossil fuels and the burning of biomass such as rice husks and residues from sugarcane plantations, as well as the construction of new infrastructure for gas-fired power plants.
In July 2022, Vietnam enacted a law promising to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Late last year, the Group of Seven advanced economies pledged $15.5 billion to end their reliance on coal-fired power under the Net Energy Transition Partnership (ZETP). Plants. Such schemes have created similar incentives for South Africa and Indonesia. At the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Vietnam pledged to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2040.
"While coal will continue to be part of the energy mix, it will represent a significant shift from the dependence on coal that Vietnam currently experiences," Chawla said. The absolute amount of heat produced remains practically unchanged.
Vietnam has also come under pressure from environmental campaigns. The recent arrest of prominent environmental activist Hwang Thi Min Hong, the fifth activist jailed in the past two years, could jeopardize a recent multibillion-dollar deal aimed at helping the country transition off coal, the German government has warned.
A phase-out of coal will not move Vietnam away from fossil fuels, as Vietnam aims to expand its use of LNG, a chilled natural gas made mostly of methane, whose production and transportation leaks contribute to global warming.
Demand for LNG, itself an aging industry, has been phased out due to disruptions in natural gas supplies from Russia due to the war in Ukraine. This means higher prices and less secure supply.
"If implemented, it will become one of the largest gas consumers in the region," said Aditya Lolla, director of the Asia program at independent energy think tank Ember. "Even for reasons beyond Vietnam's control, any interruption in gas supply could push the country toward coal if alternative renewable energy capacity is not increased soon."
Financing is another challenge, as the plan calls for spending about $135 billion on new power plants and grids by 2030.
Investors favor renewable energy sources, said Trang Nguyen, head of the Southeast Asia team at the ClimateWorks Center.
"It's good that the plan is clear to investors. However, the risk of losing LNG resources is now as big as coal. I see a challenge how to organize enough investment in something that will not be profitable for the next decade.", said.
Vietnam, which has rapidly industrialized and electrified almost its entire population, has made great strides in expanding the use of renewable energy. It will supply half of the country's electricity generation in 2022, just a quarter more than a decade ago. However, the modernization of the electrical grid could not keep pace.
"With plans to massively develop and integrate renewables into the power system, there is a need for a review of the entire power system," Lola said, adding that the plan would lead to short-term increases in electricity prices. , although it stabilizes energy prices and supply in the long run.
"PDP8's focus on grid expansion and modernization also helps, as it means fewer outages, greater grid stability, and greater overall power reliability for homes and businesses," he said. "First, it means improving access to clean energy and reducing emissions for consumers."
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Associated Press video journalist Hou Dinh contributed from Hanoi, Vietnam.
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