climate | Live in the sun, die in the sun.
Similarly, in Texas, where increased solar generation is helping the state's main grid operator cope with a prolonged and devastating heat wave.
But despite the increase in solar power, analysts say the state's power grid is not ready for a warmer climate where extreme heat waves will become more frequent and intense.
The past days overshadowed that warm future. Current temperatures have reached record highs in many cities, reaching 118 degrees Fahrenheit on the Mexican border. The departures are expected to continue this week.
"We've learned that climate change is not messy," said Alison Silverstein, a Texas-based energy consultant who produced a high-profile 2018 Energy Department report on the reliability of the nation's electric system.
"We've never seen this kind of heat dome and sustained extreme heat conditions in Texas, and it's much more widespread," Silverstein added. "We cannot change the infrastructure that has been built fast enough.
The Texas power grid has been at the center of a nationwide debate over the state's transition to cleaner energy sources, reducing the need to turn on the lights, a planet-warming pollutant.
In 2021, a severe winter storm caused power outages in much of Texas. Republicans and fossil fuel advocates are trying to blame renewable energy. Democrats and environmentalists have pointed to the failure of gas generators and the pipelines that feed them.
Disputes often do not reflect the true reason for termination. According to a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission report, Texas' electricity generation and gas infrastructure is not easily insulated to withstand extreme cold. Power plants located further north performed better despite the colder temperatures.
But this did not help to stifle political debate. This year, Republican lawmakers passed legislation designed to encourage natural gas development and make it harder to get permits and connect renewable assets to the grid. The bill passed the Senate but ultimately failed in the House.
Against this backdrop comes the latest heatwave as temperatures continue to soar across the state. The Electric Reliability Board of Texas, operator of the electric grid that serves much of the state, released its first voluntary environmental report of the year on Tuesday.
ERCOT did not reach emergency status last week.
"Most of our days, especially at the higher end of the price range, we have almost 20 percent or more renewable energy," Silverstein said. "It protects us from extreme sun and wind and stabilizes prices and performance, much of which is due to aging, outages and critical network reliability events."
The North American Electric Reliability Company said Texas has added about 4.4 gigawatts of solar capacity since last summer, providing plenty of extra power during the summer months.
About 15 percent of Ercot's electricity generation comes from solar power alone, according to GridStats, a website that collects electricity data from grid operators across the country. This makes solar energy the second largest source of electricity after natural gas.
Solar gain is important for two reasons. ERCOT defines a 10 GW outage as an outage of just under 11 GW on a Saturday morning or under grid operator winter scheduling conditions. The latest IRCOT data shows that the biggest outages were recorded at a nuclear power plant and two coal-fired power plants, which were at reduced levels until Wednesday.
ERCOT did not respond to requests for comment.
Solar energy has helped fill this gap, especially at critical times of the day. As demand for electricity increases and Texas needs help from its air conditioners, solar power production is peaking.
"It makes the difference between just a voluntary protection call and an emergency situation where solar power plants are turned on or off," said Dan Kohan, an energy sector professor at Rice University in Houston. "ERCOT is operating with a larger buffer than in recent years."
However, the heat wave has exposed the limits of the sun's capabilities. According to the US Energy Information Administration, as of 5:00 p.m. Monday afternoon last week, electricity demand was more than 79 GW. The second-highest and third-highest weekly highs were on Tuesday at 5:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m., according to EIA data.
Analysts say flexibility will change how the grid works. If grid operators plan to meet peak energy demand early in the day, they now need to plan for the evening when temperatures are high but solar production is low. NERC identified 8 a.m. as ERCOT's most dangerous hour in its summer reliability assessment.
Analysts say other clean energy technologies could help bridge the gap in those hours. Texas winds cool during the day and pick up at night. Short-term lithium batteries can also be useful. According to EIA data, Texas has installed 2.3 GW of battery capacity. That's the second-highest in the nation, but well short of California's 4.9 GW of installed battery capacity.
A combination of solar and battery power helped California weather a devastating heat wave late last summer. However, energy efficiency and demand management measures are also affecting the Golden State, according to analysts. A text message from California's independent grid operator, urging residents to cut back on electricity use, is written extensively about preventing blackouts.
Texas tried to improve grid reliability by expanding natural gas. However, some analysts say it would be cheaper and more efficient for states to implement better demand management and energy efficiency strategies.
"Otherwise, I'm pretty sure there's going to be an outage," said Doug Lewin, a Texas energy consultant writing for the state's Power Grid Bulletin. “We need to update the way we think about solar and storage and what it means for the system. But more importantly, we need to update our thinking about demand and how best to manage spikes."
Andrew Desler, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University, said the state could expect more weather events during the final week.
A heat dome is a high-pressure system that acts as a lid for a boiler and roasts the soil underneath. Many scientists point to the 2021 warming dome as evidence that climate change is sweeping the Pacific Northwest. Temperature at the time of the event is statistically impossible outside of historical records and climate model calculations.
Temperatures in Texas this winter have not been particularly extreme by historical standards, Desler said. But the scorching heat is a sign of what lies ahead for the country, he said.
“One lesson is that this happens for every 1 degree Celsius increase in the average global temperature. And we're in a 3-degree course," said Desler. "I tell my students to stay here. If we don't do anything, the future will be 3-degrees."
Reprinted with permission from E&E News POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2023. E&E News provides important news for energy and environmental professionals.
