To achieve the ambitious goal of reducing emissions to zero, countries around the world must expand the use of clean energy sources. This change can already happen in the field of solar energy.
The cost of electricity generated from solar energy has fallen significantly over the past decade, falling by 89% between 2010 and 2022. Between 2008 and 2022, it will decrease by the same amount.
These developments raise an important question: Have we passed the turning point where solar energy becomes a major source of electricity? We wanted to investigate this question in our current study.
By incorporating the latest technologies and economic data from 70 regions of the world into a macroeconomic model, our results show that the solar revolution has already arrived. By the middle of this century, solar energy will account for more than half of the world's electricity generation – even without more ambitious climate policies.
This expectation far exceeds all previous expectations. According to the International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook 2022, solar energy will make up only 25% of electricity by 2050.
By 2030, solar energy and storage systems will be very cheap
We have identified two key factors driving the rapid deployment of solar energy: capacity and short construction time. The construction of a solar power plant usually takes only one year. In comparison, offshore wind farms can take three years to build.
The rapid construction of solar farms allows investors to realize the benefits of offshore wind farms (and many other renewable energy infrastructure) sooner than their cost-effectiveness.
We see that the interaction of these factors creates a self-reinforcing cycle. Prices are expected to continue to decline as manufacturers and installers gain more experience. This makes solar energy more attractive to investors.
Our projections indicate that the average cost of producing solar energy will fall significantly by 60% between 2020 and 2050, even taking into account the growing need for energy storage.
If these forecasts are correct, solar energy and storage are expected to become the cheapest option for generating electricity in all regions of the world by 2030. By the same year, it is expected to be 50 percent cheaper than building new coal-fired power plants. Factories in six major regions: EU, USA, India, China, Japan and Brazil.
Countries that continue to build fossil fuel-based infrastructure may find that their electric-powered industries are competitive. So we have to ask ourselves whether it is realistic for the energy sector to depend on fossil fuels. The future appears to be heading in a more sustainable direction.
However, obstacles remain
The rapid expansion of solar energy is very likely and could lead to very valuable electricity. However, to ensure sunrise, many obstacles must be overcome.
Solar energy varies greatly depending on the time of day, season, and weather conditions. In order to do justice to this volatility, energy networks must be taken into account in terms of their resilience. This requires extensive energy storage, an extensive cable network connecting different regions, and more investment in additional renewable energy sources such as wind.
In a future dominated by solar energy, there will also be a huge demand for various vital minerals and minerals. In fact, the International Energy Agency estimates that by 2040, renewable technologies will account for 40% of total demand for copper, 60 to 70% for nickel and cobalt, and about 90% for lithium.
In order to ensure a stable supply of raw materials in the future, it is important to develop waste recycling initiatives. International mining operations also need to diversify. This helps spread the risks associated with concentrating mining operations in unstable areas.
Access to financing is critical to the continued growth of solar energy. But the majority of climate financing is now focused on developed countries on the path to development.
Between 2011 and 2020, 75% of climate financing went to North America, Western Europe, and East Asia (mainly China). On the other hand, Africa received only 5% of total funding to combat climate change during the same period.
One possible way to bridge this financing gap is to introduce currency and investment risks to developing countries and open up international capital flows.
The solar revolution has arrived. Countries and regions that do not include renewable energy sources in their energy supplies may lose competitiveness, especially in the industrial sector. To stay ahead, countries must not only continue their current growth, but also accelerate their efforts to integrate solar energy into grids, supported by investments in complementary technologies.
In this way, they can avoid the risk of new coal and gas-fired power plants becoming obsolete and assets falling into financial distress. The sun is rising into a new era of energy, and it's time to embrace it.
This article has been reprinted from the discussion under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. 
Quote: Solar power expected to dominate electricity by 2050 – even without more ambitious climate policy (October 27, 2023). Retrieved October 28, 2023 from https://techxplore.com/news/2023-10-solar-power-dominate-electricity. -generation.html
This file is copyrighted. No part may be reproduced without written permission, except in the case of a bona fide transaction for personal study or research. Content is for informational purposes only.
