To achieve the target of 82% renewable energy in Australia's grid by 2030, we need to build more solar capacity.
But as the pace of installing solar panels on our rooftops and grid farms accelerates, the world continues to warm and extreme weather events become more common.
Solar panels should be installed outdoors, exposing them to all weather conditions. They are designed to protect against heat, snow, rain and wind. But they have limitations. Climate change will cause many panels to deteriorate more quickly.
Our new research looks at which regions of Australia will experience the worst solar degradation by 2059 and how this will impact energy costs. We found that in the hot, humid north of Australia, solar energy will degrade faster, while solar energy will perform better in the dry interior and milder climates of the south.
What causes solar panels to fail?
When considering installing rooftop solar, warranty will likely be a deciding factor in your final choice. Most solar manufacturers offer a 25-30 year warranty, guaranteeing a reduction in energy production of less than 20% over that period.
The reason for the low power output is that solar panels slowly degrade over time. But different climatic conditions, different materials and different production technologies can lead to faster or slower wear.
Currently, the dominant solar technology is silicon. Silicon modules deteriorate due to environmental influences, voltage variations, and mechanical stress because silicon wafers are extremely hard and brittle. From an environmental perspective, the main causes of damage are humidity, ultraviolet rays and temperature.
Read more: Climate change will impact solar power and grid stability across Australia - here's how
Warmer and wetter conditions can speed up the deterioration of the condition for several reasons. The map below summarizes the four types of recessions we expect to get worse due to climate change. they are:
Lamination. Heat and humidity can cause the bonds that hold the different layers of the cell together to lose adhesion.
Discolored Coating: Excessive sunlight and moisture can damage or discolor the coating, which is the polymer used to hold the solar cell layers together.
Tape corrosion. If moisture is present frequently, it increases the likelihood that moisture will accumulate and begin to corrode the internal connections of the element's tape.
Internal circuit failure: Solar cells experience regular, daily and seasonal temperature fluctuations. These temperature changes can cause the circuit to fail over time. A warmer world will add additional stress to internal circuits, increasing the likelihood of failure.
What will lead to climate change?
Our results predict an increase in degradation rates in Australia by 2059 under high and low emissions scenarios presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
In a high-emissions scenario, solar energy would degrade twice as fast as in a low-emissions scenario due to the additional heating. Solar farms may produce less energy, and you may need to replace panels more frequently due to power outages. Sometimes this means that emissions will be 8.5% of production, which is the only reason for additional ice destruction in 2059. In a high emissions scenario, this means that energy can cover the remaining 10–12%.
But the consequences will not be felt in the same way. Our results suggest that solar energy potential built in Australia's hot, humid north will deteriorate at a particularly high rate in the future compared to the arid center, where conditions are hot but dry.
what should we do?
Heat is the leading cause of solar panel failure in Australia. As the world warms up, shame will become a very real problem.
Currently, very few solar manufacturers take climate change into account when purchasing their panels. Those who work in wetlands should do this especially. They may be more careful when choosing a new location for the solar collector to reduce the likelihood of their modules failing.
To solve the problem, we need to introduce new methods for cooling the panels and improve the materials used. We also need to improve manufacturing processes and materials to prevent moisture from accumulating inside the panels.
These problems can be solved. The first step is to admit that there is a problem.
Read more: The sunlight that powers solar panels also damages them. "Gallium Doping" Offers a Solution
