According to a study by Clean Energy Associates (CEA), the prices of solar modules in international markets are also expected to decrease, along with the decrease in polycrimion prices from 2023 onwards.
The quality control and supply chain management firm said prices will fall from 2023 if module prices remain flat this year due to higher-than-expected European purchases and tight polysilicon supplies.
In its PV Price Forecast Report (Q2 - 2022), CEA recommends purchasing modules for only about two-thirds of supply, as current market conditions will affect future demand in the long term.
US module prices rose significantly from the company's previous forecasts due to the threat of anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) in several Southeast Asian countries.
When President Joe Biden announced a two-year freeze on new solar import tariffs from Southeast Asia, the CEA noted that capacity remains at risk from future tariffs, affecting the expansion plans of many Southeast Asian suppliers and reducing opportunities to expand energy supplies. reduces cells and modules. in the region
Additionally, the implementation of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act in the US has caused further supply delays for some of the industry's largest suppliers, and has raised concerns that it will be more difficult to obtain modules in the US. , according to the report.
On polycrima, the CEA said that despite shortages in the solar industry from late 2020, polycrima prices are expected to decline until 2023 as significant generating capacity comes online.
With the CEA announcing plans to intervene in the polycrystalline market to meet the Chinese government's renewable energy installation targets, the solar industry can expect a further decline in polycrystalline prices if the government takes action.
According to PV Tech Premium, energy regulations in China further increased the average price of polycrylic last week.
Although long-term polysilicon contract prices are expected to be lower than spot market prices, due to very limited volumes outside of long-term contracts, long-term contract holders also feel a lot of uncertainty.
He added that prices are expected to remain in the $30/kg range for major polysilicon buyers until the end of 2022, with the first price drop expected in the first quarter of 2023 due to a tight trading period in China. With the increased expansion of polysilicon, the polysilicon market is expected to move from an oversupplied side.
