Indonesia's latest climate plan, released shortly before the COP27 climate talks, still requires a lot of coal and fails to keep the country to 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming. However, a major foreign investment agreement, the Equitable Energy Transition Partnership, announced later at the G20 summit in Bali, could accelerate the transition if governments implement the right policies.
Since ratifying the Paris Agreement in 2016, Indonesia has made minor changes in its national climate plan, known as Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) increases, to the initial proposed greenhouse gas targets. By 2030, the country will reduce emissions by 31.9%. The percentage compared to business as usual in the 2016 plan is 29 percent. With the right international financial support, it would reduce emissions from 41 to 43.2 percent.
The NDC has not released details on the shutdown of the country's coal-fired power plants, which environmentalists have been demanding for years.
Critics say the plan is inadequate. According to an analysis by Climate Action Tracker, Indonesia needs to set an unconditional reduction target of 62 percent to meet the highly ambitious 1.5°C warming limit agreed by countries in the Paris Agreement.
However, the Energy Just Transition Partnership (JETP) is expected to mobilize USD 20 billion in public and private funding over three to five years, which will help Indonesia meet important new emissions reduction targets and policies, particularly in power generation. sector. sector.
JETP will allow Indonesia to shift the electricity sector's peak date seven years closer to 2030, reducing emissions by more than 300 megatons this year and more than 2,000 megatons by 2060 compared to the current trajectory. The country's net zero goal could be pushed back ten years to 2050.
Don't forget that rich countries must increase their climate ambitions and speed up knowledge and technology transfers to poor and developing countries with large forest areas.
Yossi Amelia, Forest and Climate Researcher, Sustainable Civil Society
Indonesia will be able to accelerate the installation of renewables to at least 34 percent of total electricity generation by 2030 and double the total renewable installation target in this decade of the current plan.
Investments are expected to progress rapidly, Indonesia and its international partners said in a joint written statement. They will prepare a "comprehensive investment plan" within the next six months.
Trend Asia program manager Andrey Procetio said JETP could ease Indonesia's energy transition, but the government needs to take concrete steps immediately because we are still heavily dependent on coal.
Dominated by coal
The revised NDC increased the emission reduction target from Indonesia's power sector to 358 million tons of CO2 equivalent (MTCO2e) in 2021, compared to 314 MTCO2e in the proposed "updated" NDC.
Emissions reductions will be possible for higher levels of renewable energy capacity: from 7.4 GW to 20.9 GW in 2016. The plan also includes construction of solar roofs in residential, commercial and industrial sectors and manufacture of 15.1 million electric vehicles. . and 18.1 million electric stoves by 2030.
However, observers found the document to be all over coal and accused the government of failing to address the country's pressing problems. Indonesia is heavily dependent on coal as its main source of energy and is one of the world's largest exporters.
Greenpeace Indonesia climate and energy campaigner Adila Isfandiari said the new NDC would still allow at least 30 percent of the country to produce coal by 2025 and 25 percent by 2050. This is contrary to the recommendations of the United Nations Climate Science Organization to reduce emissions. By 2030, coal use in the energy sector will be reduced by 80% compared to 2010 and 1.5°C will be maintained by 2040.
The government plans to use "co-firing" of coal and biomass in a coal-fired power plant, which requires 9 million tons of biomass annually. An IEEFA analysis showed that this would require a large biomass industry, which would face significant technical and financial challenges, especially when procuring high-quality materials. According to US researchers, a 5 percent biomass mix reduces CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants by only 3.2 percent. There is also the risk of increased carbon emissions due to land clearing for biomass cultivation, production processes and distribution of biomass pellets.
The upgraded plans still include a 13.8 GW coal-fired power plant to be completed in 2030.
“Coal-fired power plants should be initially commissioned as soon as possible to make room for the development of renewable energy. We cannot wait another year,” Adila said.
coal mining
However, the improved NDC states that it is a step towards compatibility with 1.5C. Environment and Forestry Minister Siti Nurbaya Bakar: “We will submit our second NDC in 2024 and include coal phase-out as part of our phased approach as part of a just energy transition. JETP is likely to be included in the 2024 NDC, making it more ambitious.
Meanwhile, Lakshmi Dwanti, director general of climate change control at the Ministry of Environment, said the increase in emission reduction targets in the NDC reflects policy development and efforts to reduce emissions. This includes the ministry's own internal policy, "Decommissioning Forests and Land Use Networks by 2030," which calls for CO2 sequestration from soils and forests by the end of the decade.
Lakshmi did not elaborate on how the government calculated the numbers in the NDC. In contrast, during a speech at the Climate Festival in Indonesia in October, he pointed out that the key sectors are: forestry and land use, as well as energy, which dominate emissions in Indonesia. Also includes waste, industry and agriculture. Lakshmi said at the climate festival that the new goals reflect our commitment from COP26 in Glasgow and also show leadership with Indonesia's current G20 presidency.
overall effect
Indonesia, one of the world's largest greenhouse gas emitters and an emerging economy, will emit 602.6 million tons of CO2 in 2021. For comparison, China emitted 11.9 billion tons
Adila said Indonesia's efforts to raise climate targets are a glimmer of hope that could pave the way for developing countries and other powerful economies to do the same. The country is one of 24 countries that have submitted new or updated climate plans ahead of COP27, although all have agreed to review and strengthen their NDCs after COP26 in November 2021.
In late October, the United Nations slammed countries for not acting fast enough on climate change, saying current commitments are not enough to save the planet from a catastrophic climate catastrophe. As the world bends the emissions curve, deeper reductions are needed to limit global average temperature increases to 1.5°C.
Madani Berksusaan, an Indonesian non-profit, called the new target "progressive" but questioned its ability to influence countries other than top-emitting economies such as China and the United States.
"Unfortunately, Indonesian diplomacy has not been widely used to address issues such as climate change or strong climate commitments with other countries," said Yossi Amelia, forest and climate researcher at Madani Barclays.
Rather, it is more important that rich countries meet broken promises and pay poor countries $100 billion a year in climate payments by 2020.
"Remember that rich countries also need to increase their climate ambitions and accelerate knowledge and technology transfer to poor and developing countries with large forest areas," he said.
Large forest area
A long-term goal relates to forestry and land use. With the increase in NDC, emissions from this sector are expected to decrease from 647 MTCO2e in 2010 to 214 MTCO2e in 2030. With international support, the Indonesian government has estimated that emissions could even turn negative, reaching -15 MTCO2e in 2030. Restricted to peatland restoration and attainment of objectives.
Unsurprisingly, the share of deforestation has increased in developed NDCs, Yossi said. The new document states that the government plans to deforest 359,000 hectares per year through its own efforts (325,000 hectares in 2021) and 175,000 hectares per year through financial assistance.
More ambition is needed
Adila said Indonesia's climate targets could be higher and urged the government to forget coal and focus on developing renewable energy.
Meanwhile, Yossi said emissions reductions from the forestry sector could be stepped up. "Indonesia should be more optimistic about reducing its share of deforestation, as the pace has slowed in recent years."
Yossi added that the government should be able to focus on achieving its goals with the support of various international collaborations, including the REDD+ RBP, the World Bank Biocarbon Fund, the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) and renewable bilateral cooperation. Norway.
"It is also important to note that these goals and their implementation are closely monitored and transparently scrutinized," said Harimo, senior fellow at the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFR).
