Ulrich von Lampe, Mercator Research Institute for Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) gGmbH
In the last 10 years alone, the cost of solar-generated electricity has dropped by 87% and battery maintenance costs by 85%. Wind power, heat pumps and other non-fossil fuel technologies are also seeing prices fall. The study now compares the respective results of the innovation reports with standard model-based climate transition scenarios. This shows that while the fight against global warming remains a major policy challenge, new, more cost-effective ways are emerging.
The study was conducted by the Berlin climate research institute MCC (Mercator Research Institute for Global Commons and Climate Change) and published in the journal Energy Research & Social Science . The research team concluded that a good quality of life can be achieved with significantly less energy consumption.
"Some estimates even suggest that by 2050, all global energy consumption could be fully and economically covered by solar technologies and other renewable energy sources," said Felix, head of the Land Use, Infrastructure and Transportation Working Group. MCC and lead author of the study. . reports. learn
"This is an extremely optimistic scenario, but it shows that the future is open. Scenario models should reflect as closely as possible the climate science that informs policymakers. The purpose of our study is to provide this information.”
Climate change may unfold differently than expected, according to the study. Currently, in scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement (ie global warming below 2 degrees Celsius), large volumes of coal are expected to continue burning in the future, and the resulting CO 2 will be captured and stored underground. .
Despite negative impacts on food production and biodiversity, large-scale biomass burning (wood pellets, biogas and fast-growing climate plantation crops) and carbon capture and storage are also envisaged. But the research team is gathering evidence that non-fossil fuel alternatives could be a game changer.
For example, battery costs are already below $100 per kilowatt-hour, which is far less than was predicted for 2030 in a publication two years ago. Battery storage surcharges will drop from 100% currently to just 28% in 2030, providing flexible access to solar energy in the optimal mix.
Electricity providers shut down existing coal-fired power plants at the start of the peak and replace them with new hybrid solar systems. Experts predict that by 2050, 63,000 terawatt-hours of solar power will be available worldwide, more than double what coal provides today.
And 80% of private investment in new energy capacity is now fossil fuel-free. However, the research team focuses on the political economy of coal; Considerations such as employment, tax payments, political constraints or financial liquidity encourage governments to invest in coal, even if renewables offer more benefits.
The study also describes global structural changes that will make climate transition more cost-effective. For example, solar cells, batteries, heat pumps and wind turbines are benefiting from the trend towards granular technologies, that is, solutions with simple elements that can be assembled, like Lego bricks, into larger systems.
Here the pace of innovation is higher than in classical large-scale systems. In addition, new suppliers are finding unexpected success in energy-saving solutions for everyday consumption, from vegan noodles in the supermarket to electric scooters and all-in-ones in hardware stores.
Finally, sectoral integration (direct and indirect electrification of transport, heating and industry) ensures greater energy efficiency and creates new opportunities for clean electricity storage, for example in electric vehicles, synthetic gases for industry or e- fuel for aircraft and ships. .
"Greenhouse gas emissions are higher than ever and the measures taken so far are too weak, but technological progress offers a glimmer of hope in this politically difficult situation," says Jean Minx, head of the scientific task force. and one of the co-authors. "New scenario models, some of which are just beginning to be studied, are likely to demonstrate that global climate transition in the near future may not be as costly as previously thought and may even result in savings of the cost in the long term. applied".
Further information: Felix Kreutzig et al., Technological innovations enable low-cost mitigation of climate change, Energy Research and Social Science (2023). DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2023.103276
Provided by the Mercator Research Institute (MCC) gGmbH on Global Connected Societies and Climate Change.
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